Census results reveal Catholic majority in Northern Ireland for the first time
Eoin McCaul
For the first time in history, the Catholic population now outnumbers the Protestant population in Northern Ireland according to the NI Census 2021 results, which were published by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) on September 22.
46 per cent of respondents were from a Catholic background, while 43 per cent were brought up as Protestant. This represents a slight but significant shift from the 2011 results, which found that 45 per cent of the population were Catholic and 48 per cent were Protestant.
In the context of May’s NI Assembly election where Sinn Féin won the largest share of seats, this represents another significant shift to challenge the status quo of a country founded to be ‘a Protestant state for a Protestant people’.
However, while supporters of a united Ireland have suggested that this sets a precedent for a referendum on a united Ireland, unionists have argued that since Irish-only identity remains at 29 per cent, the majority still support the status quo.
In the first census to take place after the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, British-only identity has fallen from 40 per cent in 2011 to 32 per cent in 2021. As most voters in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, these results may be indicative of an unwillingness amongst more moderate unionists to identify with what they view as the toxicity of British nationalism prevalent in the debate since and most clearly embodied in the recent premiership of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Aside from Sinn Féin, the non-aligned Alliance party was another big victor in May’s election; gaining nine seats and becoming the third-largest party. Notably, the number of people identifying as having no religion in the census has also increased since 2011; from 17 per cent to 19 per cent.
However, as seen in the ongoing dispute over the NI Protocol, for many working-class unionist communities identity remains central. From their point of view, the economic separation of Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK is viewed as an attack on British identity and a stepping stone towards a united Ireland.
In April 2021, tensions over the Protocol erupted into some of the the worst street violence seen here in many years; “When you’re in that community, when you’re living there, the only option you feel you have to be heard because you’re not being heard, is violence” says Ellie, a student at Queen’s University Belfast who grew up on West Belfast’s Shankill Road. She told me; “I genuinely think that what we saw in the Protocol protests will be absolutely nothing compared to what will happen if they call a vote for a united Ireland”.
The extreme poverty that exists in the loyalist areas that saw the worst of the protests are some of the most deprived in the country, with the lowest level of educational attainment in Europe. However, this deprivation is not limited to Protestant areas, with Catholic wards such as the Falls Road and Ardoyne among the most deprived. With the last twelve years of Westminster governments overseeing the worst growth since the industrial revolution, and the average UK household now set to fall below the living standards of Poland and Slovenia, it looks unlikely that the issues of deprivation that exist in all communities here will be addressed any time soon.
Nationalists argue that a united Ireland would benefit all communities with John Finucane, the Sinn Féin MP for North Belfast stating:
“Today‘s census results are another clear indication that historic change is happening across this island and of the diversity of society which enriches us all.
The Irish government should establish a Citizens’ Assembly to plan for the possibility of a Unity referendum.
A period of planning is critical. That planning, and dialogue, and engagement needs to happen now and it must include people from all backgrounds and communities.”
Brexit has shown that making huge constitutional changes based on a slim majority of voters can lead to great division. And with the violence of the Troubles still in the not-too-distant past, young people of the post-Good Friday Agreement peace generation do not wish to see it return.
Negative reactions to the NI protocol and the DUP’s refusal to form a government would suggest that many unionists are unlikely to accept the prospect of a united Ireland in the near future. However, with the current cost-of-living crisis, it’s clearly vital that all communities here come together to heal divisions.
Undeniably, Northern Ireland is now seeing huge changes to the current status quo, but what this will lead to remains to be seen.
Eoin McCaul is Comment Editor at The Scoop and a Politics, Philosophy and Economics student at Queen’s University Belfast