I'm attending Cop26 – here's what to expect
AJ Camacho
It’s a scary time of year with skeletons and cobwebs adoring houses, parks, and storefronts. Adding to the suspense of the season is the recently-begun Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow, considered by many experts to be the world’s “last hope” to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Between October 31 and November 12, world leaders, diplomats, and scientists are meeting in Scotland to negotiate the international community's stance and potential actions to combat the climate crisis. And I’ll be there too, keeping Scoop readers updated. As the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as Cop26, begins three factors are expected to take centre stage.
First, the conference itself, which was already delayed from its original 2020 date owing to the pandemic. Indeed, Covid-19 is the wild card of negotiations.
‘When people understand that we’re facing a clear and present danger, we can mobilise people’, Prof Barry says
Travel restrictions mean that delegates and members of the public have less opportunity to participate or won't be able to attend the meeting at all. Not only will restricting delegates make negotiations harder, but the civil society presence will not be felt by diplomats like it was at the 2015 Paris Conference.
Second, commitments to curb carbon emissions. Though the Paris Agreement was made with the best estimates from climate scientists at the time, recent research suggests that even if countries keep to their pledges and targets, global temperatures will exceed the Agreement's goal to limit warming to 1.5C.
Beyond that point, scientists expect rising sea levels would make entire countries uninhabitable, extreme heat would induce global-scale famine, and an estimated 8 million additional people will die each year. Thus whether countries – especially high-emitters with more modest goals like China, India, and Russia – put forth more ambitious targets will prove pivotal to the Conference's political success.
Third, and perhaps most importantly, the conference will need to consider increasing incentives for poorer states to go green at the expense of wealthier ones. Low-income or developing countries face a big opportunity cost in switching energy grids from cheaper fossil fuels to more expensive green alternatives.
Consequently, they are increasingly demanding trillions of pounds in financial support from middle and high-income states in exchange for keeping their commitment to the Paris goal. If curbing emissions is not economical, most countries won't do it.
These factors are at the centre of negotiations, but what product can we expect? Experts are split, but sentiments lean pessimistic. The Paris Agreement appeared to be the grand solution to the climate crisis after 20 UN conferences, with all but 5 UN member states ratifying the Accords. Despite this, according to Queen’s University Belfast professor of green political economy John Barry: “The reality is, we’re on track now for a 2.7C heating around the world, which is absolutely catastrophic.”
Research suggests that even if countries keep to their pledges, global temperatures will exceed the Agreement's goal to limit warming to 1.5C
If the widely-celebrated Paris came up short, can Glasgow deliver? Prof Barry is hopeful but skeptical: “There’s going to be a lot of rhetoric; I have very, very low expectations.”
While keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C goal is unlikely, it’s possible. Though neither will visit Glasgow, presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have committed China and Russia respectively to net-zero carbon emissions by 2060 while US president Joe Biden (who will attend) aspires to do the same by 2050 in the US. Though they lack clear plans, three of the world’s four largest polluters are – in principle – assenting to Cop26’s stated goal to “secure global net-zero by the middle of the century”.
There are further good omens for that goal, mainly that green energy is getting cheaper quickly. A September paper out of Oxford University estimated that the world will “achieve a near-net-zero emissions energy system within 25 years” if green technology is left to develop at its current pace. Indeed, Glasgow may only need to make minor changes, like increasing government subsidies to green energy to expedite the transition from fossil fuels, to avoid the 1.5C tipping point.
Though doubtful about Cop26, Prof Barry points to the Second World War’s America and governments across the world in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic as precedent for entire societies mobilising toward a common effort.
“That should give us hope because it shows,” Prof Barry says, that “when we have leadership, when people understand that we’re facing a clear and present danger, we can mobilise people”.
Stay tuned for more coverage on Cop from Glasgow
AJ Camacho is a reporter at The Scoop and is attending Cop26