A.J. Camacho

As last week came to an end, the press surrounding Cop26 was – to the surprise of many – optimistic. But with the ministerial-level segments having opened on Tuesday, what is the state of Cop now? I arrived in Glasgow Tuesday morning and spent the afternoon in the “Blue Zone” where negotiations are happening. Here are my key takeaways.

Yes, it's quite disorganised

Granted, I have no experience to compare this to, but one journalist who had been to a previous Cop told me that – while larger – Cop26 is considerably more chaotic. Indeed, ever since registering at the conference, things have seemed slightly confused to me. At the media information desk, people couldn't answer somewhat basic questions, like whether I needed to register for the Cop26 president's press conference.

A seasoned correspondent for a major TV news network told me, "Anyone who tells you they understand Cop is lying to you".

Apparently, the type of uncertainty I felt was not the exception but the norm. When I did make it to the press conference and was chatting to a seasoned correspondent for a major TV news network, he told me, "Anyone who tells you they understand Cop is lying to you". When I set off for the opening of the high-level talks where more than a dozen global ministers were expected to speak, a half-dozen other journalists and I were told conflicting instructions as to where to meet and were finally admitted to the room more than half-an-hour later than scheduled.

To add a comical edge, the organisers had not set aside press chairs as they advertised and instead directed me to sit at the empty assigned seating for the Thailand delegation. "If someone comes, just give it to them and try to find an empty seat," the usher noted. Fortunately, the Thai delegation didn't show - especially because I don’t know “I’m sorry” in Thai.

Hopeful highs brought down to reality

In light of recent commitments made at Cop26, reports from the University of Melbourne and International Energy Agency both found the world would only warm ~1.8C if pledges are kept. The spirit of optimism this put in the discussion around Cop was dampened by a report released Tuesday from Global Climate Tracker, finding that current national policies will see the earth warm 2.4C..

States will take several months to adjust policy after their Cop26 pledges

The report, while not surprising, served as a stark reminder that countries' promises on climate change have rarely been met. About the report, Cop26 president Alok Sharma said: "There’s been some progress, but clearly not enough... We want, at this Cop, to be able to say with credibility that we are keeping 1.5 alive – 1.5 within reach – and that is what we’re going to be working towards in the coming days."

Still, it should be noted that the 2.4C prediction is down from Global Climate Tracker's 3.6C projection in 2016, implying current policies are greener than they were five years ago. In addition, states will take several months to adjust policy after their Cop26 pledges.

A “big' announcement on the horizon

At a press conference, Cop President Sharma announced the first draft of the cover decision – the main negotiated document – will be released tonight. He suggested the first draft had the "consensus" of all delegations, though emphasised delegates will consult with their respective national capitals and amendments are likely before the cover decision is finalised by Friday.

While Sharma refused to offer any commentary on the draft, a correspondent I conversed with at Cop noted that the first draft will be "as good as it gets," saying revisions to it will only roll back the first draft's ambitions, in all likelihood. In other words, the content of this draft will determine whether Cop26 has the political capacity to "keep 1.5 alive," though what will matter practically is policy changes in the coming months.

If you’re anxious to hear about the cover decision and other Cop26 news, make sure to follow The Scoop on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram for the news as it happens.

A.J. Camacho is a reporter for The Scoop and is attending Cop26 in Glasgow

My Cop26 diary: Hopeful highs, big announcements and disorganisation