The road to COP27
Flavia Gouveia
At the end of COP26 many were sceptical that the two-week conference had succeeded in securing significant progress. The sceptics called it ‘Flop26’ and ‘Cop-out 26’. With the 27th annual conference due to start this weekend, are we heading towards Flop27?
The Glasgow Climate Pact, agreed at the end of COP26 following extended negotiations, failed to meet the high expectations set at the beginning of the conference. It did not set out revised national emission commitments for each country and it was not legally binding.
In the year since, the war in Ukraine and rapidly rising inflation have caused global energy and food prices to rocket, putting climate action on the backburner for many countries.
Meanwhile, the summer of 2022 saw record temperatures documented across the world and several extreme weather events.
Europe recorded its warmest summer on record, with temperatures as high as 47 degrees. The extreme temperatures in Europe led to wildfires, especially in Spain and Portugal.
India and Pakistan also saw record breaking heatwaves. In Pakistan these were followed by monsoon flooding which affected around 33 million people.
The list of extreme weather events could go on. Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth says, “these are all manifestations of climate change brought about by human activities.”
Despite commitments to phase-out coal and financing for fossil fuel industries, a recent report by the OECD found that global subsidies for fossil fuels almost doubled between 2020 and 2021. These are estimated to increase even further due to mounting fuel prices.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis resulted in some countries shifting their focus to onshoring their fossil fuel energy supplies. Some estimates are that as a result, European governments will spend billions expanding fossil fuel infrastructure.
The bleak picture continues, as a recent UN report analysing the gap between pledges to limit emissions and the cuts necessary to limit a global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees found that progress to date had been "woefully inadequate”.
“Wide-ranging, large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation is now essential to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.”
The report continued, stating that “policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century”.
It concluded that “wide-ranging, large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation is now essential to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement”.
Many of the key priorities will remain the same, emission reduction commitments and phasing out of fossil fuel will likely be at the top of the agenda. However, as the effects of climate change intensify, affecting developing nations disproportionately, one key area expected to dominate discussions is funding for ‘loss and damage’.
A key element of international efforts to tackle climate change is the agreed $100 billion a year in funding by 2020 to support climate action in developing countries. However, reports show that these commitments have not been met.
An OECD report published in July 2022 showed that in 2020, developed nations were still $17 billion short of the $100 billion annual finance goal. More recently, reports by the Guardian show that as at September 2022, the UK had failed to meet its financial contribution.
Pressure will be on ensuring that these commitments are met in order to maintain the integrity of the international framework underpinning COP, particularly in relation to the necessary international cooperation.
COP27 is due to start this weekend. Delegates from all around the world will gather in Sharm El-Sheikh for negotiations and events which will last until November 18.
Useful Links
https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/finance-usd-100-billion-goal/
Flavia Gouveia is the editor of the Environment and Science section and is studying for an MA in Journalism at Ulster University.